The price of silico-manganese in the first half of 2025 fluctuated in line with manganese ore supply and demand, combined with the overall trend of the ferrous industry chain and the impact of collapsing coal and electricity costs, showing a pattern of surging first and then retreating.
From January to June 2025, silico-manganese futures prices first rose and then fell, with an overall downward trajectory. In mid-January to early February, prices surged due to disruptions in manganese ore shipments, but market sentiment quickly turned pessimistic. Although manganese ore arrivals remained low in February and March, leaving a demand gap, high inventory-to-sales ratios of both manganese ore and silico-manganese, together with falling coal and electricity prices, failed to prevent prices from declining after mid-February. From April onward, silico-manganese production began to decline while manganese ore arrivals increased, shifting ore supply from shortage to surplus. However, despite easing oversupply in silico-manganese, the downward trend continued. After May, silico-manganese production cuts accelerated, warehouse receipts decreased, and prices turned into a volatile pattern, with a slight recovery at the bottom in June.
During the same period, January to June 2025, ferrosilicon prices trended downward with fluctuations, showing signs of bottoming out and modest rebound in June. Electricity accounts for the largest share of ferrosilicon production costs, with around 8,000 kWh consumed per ton. The decline in ferrosilicon prices was essentially a reflection of falling coal and electricity costs. From February to May, coal and power demand entered the off-season. Coal supply security policies continued to expand production, while demand was weakened by the rise of renewable energy, leading to subdued market activity and falling coal prices, which in turn drove down electricity price expectations. However, after June, with the arrival of "Safe Production Month," thermal coal output decreased on a month-on-month basis. Combined with coal prices at low levels, reduced coal imports, and a recovery in thermal power demand, the ferrosilicon market began to rebound.
